Bushwick

$HD Q3 Earnings Cheat Sheet

狗亚提现要多久到账

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Event?

HDreportsitsfiscalQ3earningstomorrowmorningbeforetheopen?

Theoptionsmarketisimplyingabouta3。

5%onedaymove,whichisslightlyabovethe4qtravgofabout3。

25%andthe8qtravgofabout2。

5%。

Sentiment?

WallStreetanalystsaresomewhatpositiveonthestock,with16buys,11holds,andonly1sell,andanaverage12monthpricetargetofaround$85。

50?

Shortinterestisatjust0。

9%offloat,andHDisup29%sofarin2013?

Thestockhasmorethandoubledinthepast2years。

OptionsOpenInterest?

Openinterestisskewedtowardsputs,ataround1。

2to1putsvs。

calls?

Thepast1monthvolumehasbeenslightlyskewedtowardsputs,ataratioofabout1。

1to1?

However,thebulkoftheopeninterestinputsisatmuchlowerstrikes,whicharenotinplay?

Theweekly77callshaveover17kofopeninterest?

Furtherout,theJan1480callsalsohaveover80kofopeninterest,whiletheJan1472。

50putlinehasaround10k。

PriceAction/Technicals?

Likesomanymega-capstocksin2013,HDbrokeouttoanewall-timehighearlierthisyear,abovethe$70highitsetin1999-2000?

Sincethatspringbreakout,thestockhasheldabovethe$70level:

HDmonthlychart,CourtesyofBloomberg

Onthedailychart,the200daymovingaveragehasactedassupportonseveraloccasionsinthelast2months:

HDdaily,200daymainblack,CourtesyofBloomberg

Thestocksbouncelastweekhastakenituptonearthehighsoftheyear,inthe80-81。

50area,fromwherethestockwasrejectedinMay,June,July,andAugust?

Theall-timehighis$81。

56?

$75isobvioussupport。

Volatility?

HD30dayimpliedvolatility(red)hasbeeninarelativelytightrangeoverthepastyear:

HD30dayimpliedvol(red)vs。

30dayrealizedvol(blue),CourtesyofLiveVolPro

Impliedvolhasbeenbetween15and25formostofthepastyear?

30dayrealizedvolatilityhasbeenbetween13and25,thoughmostofthetimeithasbeenbelow20?

Expectimpliedvoltoheadbackdowntothehighteensafterearnings。

OurView?

HDstockstalledatthesametimethatinterestratesstartedmovinghigherinmid-May?

Sincethen,concernsoverthehousingmarketslowinghavepersisted,evenasthebroaderstockmarkethascontinuedtorally?

Housing-relatedstocks,asrepresentedbytheXHBETF,havelookedquitesimilartoHD,generallyflatsincemid-May。

DanputonaHDputcalendartradeonOctober11th,withthefollowingthought:

Thestock’sstrengthtodayisclearingbuckingthetrendofbroadretailweakness,butmysenseisthatrateswillcontinuetostaybid,regardlessofYellen’sappointmenttobethenextFedChairwoman,andthatacontinuationofthegovernmentshutdownwillweighonconsumerconfidencealladdinguptosofteningactivityinthehousingmarket?

ButtheBULLCASEispredicatedonthenotionthatthereremainsatremendousbacklogofhomeimprovementthatdoesnotrelyonnewandusedhomepurchases?

ThisisnotatrendthatIwouldwanttobeshortinthelongrun,butliketheideaofsettinguptoownDecnearthemoneyPutsfortheirQ3resultsexpectedNov19th。